Angielski
A simulative cause-and-effect model determining macroeconomic indicators according to microeconomic processes was developed. For this purpose, we have developed and explored a system of key actual microeconomic mechanisms (like formation of costs and prices, wages, state revenues, producers' incomes, taxes etc. as well as trade and transfers among all economic agents affected by devaluation and inflation) and their interrelation. Traditional macroeconomic hypotheses are included in model's calculations either fully or partially. Major shady activities are reflected. The model can be easily adjusted for any country's economy. Recommendations based on multivariate calculations and forecasts for various scenarios were developed for National Bank, Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, manufacturers, exporters and importers. Besides recommendations on building of systems of regression foreign trade models were developed. Necessary and sufficient conditions to improve the non-zero trade balance were determinate. For scientists, state managers, students and PhD applicants.
